Exposure to ambient air toxicants and the risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS): A matched case control study.

BACKGROUND: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disorder with few risk factors identified and no known cure. Gene-environment interaction is hypothesized especially for sporadic ALS cases (90-95%) which are of unknown etiology. We aimed to investigate risk factors for ALS including exposure to ambient air toxics. METHODS: This population-based case-control study included 267 ALS cases (from the United States [U.S.] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry National ALS Registry and Biorepository) and 267 age, sex, and county-matched controls identified via a commercial database. Exposure assessment for 34 ambient air toxicants was performed by assigning census tract-level U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2011 National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) data to participants' residential ZIP codes. Conditional logistic regression was used to compute adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for individual compounds, chemical classes, and overall exposure. Sensitivity analyses using both conditional logistic regression and Bayesian grouped weighted quartile sum (GWQS) models were performed to assess the integrity of findings. RESULTS: Using the 2011 NATA, the highest exposure quartile (Q4) compared to the lowest (Q1) of vinyl chloride (aOR = 6.00, 95% CI: 1.87-19.25), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (aOR = 5.45, 95% CI: 1.53-19.36), cyanide (aOR = 4.34, 95% CI: 1.52-12.43), cadmium (aOR = 3.30, 95% CI: 1.11-9.77), and carbon disulfide (aOR = 2.98, 95% CI: 1.00-8.91) was associated with increased odds of ALS. Residential air selenium showed an inverse association with ALS (second quartile [Q2] vs. Q1: aOR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.18-0.79). Additionally, residential exposure to organic/chlorinated solvents (Q4 vs Q1: aOR = 2.62, 95% CI: 1.003-6.85) was associated with ALS. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings using the 2011 NATA linked by census tract to residential area provide evidence of increased ALS risk in cases compared to controls for 2,4-dinitrotoluene, vinyl chloride, cyanide, and the organic/chlorinated solvents class. This underscores the importance of ongoing surveillance of potential exposures for at-risk populations.

Use of Immunosuppression and the Risk of Subsequent Overall or Cancer Mortality.

PURPOSE: To determine the incidence of all-cause and cancer mortality (CM) in association with immunosuppression. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study at ocular inflammatory disease (OID) subspecialty centers. We harvested exposure and covariate data retrospectively from clinic inception (earliest in 1979) through 2010 inclusive. Then we ascertained overall and cancer-specific mortalities by National Death Index linkage. We constructed separate Cox models to evaluate overall and CM for each class of immunosuppressant and for each individual immunosuppressant compared with person-time unexposed to any immunosuppression. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with noninfectious OID, excluding those with human immunodeficiency infection or preexisting cancer. METHODS: Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors (mostly infliximab, adalimumab, and etanercept); antimetabolites (methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil, azathioprine); calcineurin inhibitors (cyclosporine); and alkylating agents (cyclophosphamide) were given when clinically indicated in this noninterventional cohort study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall mortality and CM. RESULTS: Over 187 151 person-years (median follow-up 10.0 years), during which 15 938 patients were at risk for mortality, we observed 1970 deaths, 435 due to cancer. Both patients unexposed to immunosuppressants (standardized mortality ratio [SMR] = 0.95, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-1.01) and those exposed to immunosuppressants but free of systemic inflammatory diseases (SIDs) (SMR = 1.04, 95% CI, 0.95-1.14) had similar mortality risk to the US population. Comparing patients exposed to TNF inhibitors, antimetabolites, calcineurin inhibitors, and alkylating agents with patients not exposed to any of these, we found that overall mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.88, 0.89, 0.90, 1.11) and CM (aHR = 1.25, 0.89, 0.86, 1.23) were not significantly increased. These results were stable in sensitivity analyses whether excluding or including patients with SID, across 0-, 3-, or 5-year lags and across quartiles of immunosuppressant dose and duration. CONCLUSIONS: Our results, in a cohort where the indication for treatment was proven unassociated with mortality risk, found that commonly used immunosuppressants-especially the antimetabolites methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil, and azathioprine; the TNF inhibitors adalimumab and infliximab, and cyclosporine-were not associated with increased overall and CM over a median cohort follow-up of 10.0 years. These results suggest the safety of these agents with respect to overall and CM for patients treated with immunosuppression for a wide range of inflammatory diseases. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Development and validation of an overdose risk prediction tool using prescription drug monitoring program data.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a machine-learning algorithm to predict fatal overdose using Pennsylvania Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (PDMP) data. METHODS: The training/testing (n = 3020,748) and validation (n = 2237,701) cohorts included Pennsylvania residents with a prescription dispensing from February 2018-September 2021. Potential predictors (n = 222) were measured in the 6 months prior to a random index date. Using a gradient boosting machine, we developed a 20-variable model to predict risk of fatal drug overdose in the 6 months after the index date. RESULTS: Beneficiaries in the training (n = 1,812,448), testing (n = 1,208,300), and validation (n = 2,237,701) samples had similar age, with low rates of fatal overdose during 6-month follow up (0.12%, 0.12%, 0.04%, respectively). The validation c-statistic was 0.86 for predicting fatal overdose using 20 PDMP variables. When ranking individuals based on risk score, the prediction model more accurately identified fatal overdose at 6 months compared to using opioid dosage or opioid/benzodiazepine overlap, although the percentage of individuals in the highest risk percentile who died at 6 months was less than 1%. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS: A gradient boosting machine algorithm predicting fatal overdose derived from twenty variables performed well in discriminating risk across testing and validation samples, improving on single factor risk measures like opioid dosage.

Risk of longer-term neurological conditions in the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Coast Guard Cohort Study - Five years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Long-term neurological health risks associated with oil spill cleanup exposures are largely unknown. We aimed to investigate risks of longer-term neurological conditions among U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) responders to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. METHODS: We used data from active duty members of the DWH Oil Spill Coast Guard Cohort Study (N=45224). Self-reported oil spill exposures were ascertained from post-deployment surveys. Incident neurological outcomes were classified using International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, codes from military health encounter records up to 5.5 years post-DWH. We used Cox Proportional Hazards regression to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for various incident neurological diagnoses (2010-2015). Oil spill responder (n=5964) vs. non-responder (n= 39260) comparisons were adjusted for age, sex, and race, while within-responder comparisons were additionally adjusted for smoking. RESULTS: Compared to those not responding to the spill, spill responders had reduced risks for headache (aHR=0.84, 95% CI: 0.74-0.96), syncope and collapse (aHR=0.74, 95% CI: 0.56-0.97), and disturbance of skin sensation (aHR=0.81, 95% CI: 0.68-0.96). Responders reporting ever (n=1068) vs. never (n=2424) crude oil inhalation exposure were at increased risk for several individual and grouped outcomes related to headaches and migraines (aHR range: 1.39-1.83). Crude oil inhalation exposure was also associated with elevated risks for an inflammatory nerve condition, mononeuritis of upper limb and mononeuritis multiplex (aHR=1.71, 95% CI: 1.04-2.83), and tinnitus (aHR=1.91, 95% CI: 1.23-2.96), a condition defined by ringing in one or both ears. Risk estimates for those neurological conditions were higher in magnitude among responders reporting exposure to both crude oil and oil dispersants than among those reporting crude oil only. CONCLUSION: In this large study of active duty USCG responders to the DWH disaster, self-reported spill cleanup exposures were associated with elevated risks for longer-term neurological conditions.

Corneal Endothelial Transplantation in Uveitis: Incidence and Risk Factors.

PURPOSE: To estimate the incidence of corneal endothelial transplantation (CET) and identify risk factors among patients with noninfectious ocular inflammation. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Adult patients attending United States tertiary uveitis care facilities diagnosed with noninfectious ocular inflammation were identified from the Systemic Immunosuppressive Therapy for Eye Diseases Cohort Study. Time-to-event analysis was used to estimate the incidence of CET, including penetrating keratoplasty, Descemet stripping endothelial keratoplasty, or Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty procedures. The incidence of CET was calculated. Potential risk factors for CET were also evaluated using Cox regression, accounting for correlation between eyes of the same patient. RESULTS: Overall, 14,264 eyes met eligibility criteria for this analysis, with a median follow-up of 1.8 eye-years. The Kaplan-Meier estimated incidence of CET within 10 years was 1.10% (95% CI, 0.68%-1.53%). Risk factors for CET included age >60 years vs <40 years (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 16.5; 95% CI, 4.70-57.9), anterior uveitis and scleritis vs other types (aHR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.46-6.05; and aHR, 4.14; 95% CI,1.28-13.4, respectively), topical corticosteroid treatment (aHR, 2.84; 95% CI, 1.32-6.13), cataract surgery (aHR, 4.44; 95% CI, 1.73-11.4), tube shunt surgery (aHR, 11.9; 95% CI, 5.30-26.8), band keratopathy (aHR, 5.12; 95% CI, 2.34-11.2), and hypotony (aHR, 7.38; 95% CI, 3.14-17.4). Duration of uveitis, trabeculectomy, peripheral anterior synechia, and ocular hypertension had no significant association after multivariate adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with ocular inflammation, CET occurred infrequently. Tube shunt surgery, hypotony, band keratopathy, cataract surgery, and anterior segment inflammation were associated with increased risk of undergoing CET; these factors likely are associated with endothelial cell damage.

Evaluating the effectiveness of problem-solving courts at preventing fatal and non-fatal opioid events: preliminary findings from Indiana.

BACKGROUND: Fatal and non-fatal events associated with drug misuse are skyrocketing in most United States jurisdictions, including Indiana. Historically, the role of the judiciary is to arrest, impose sanctions and protect society from harm. Adults arrested for drug abuse in Indiana can be sentenced to 1 of 17 correctional facilities. As an alternative, they may be eligible to participate in a problem-solving court (PSC) programme that refers individuals to treatment as a pretrial diversionary strategy. The aim of the study is to determine which interventions offered by PSCs and correctional facilities impact morbidity and mortality. The study began in 2019 and will end in 2023; therefore, the results in this manuscript are preliminary. METHODS: The study cohort included two populations arrested for drug misuse: (1) adults sentenced to Indianan correctional facilities (1 January 2018 to 30 June 2021) and (2) adults participating in an Indiana PSC programme (1 January 2018 to 30 June 2021). The study used a mixed-methods design that integrated qualitative interviews of deputy wardens, PSC team members and service providers with the following quantitative datasets: sentencing information, emergency department visits, inpatient hospitalization admissions, prescription drug monitoring programme data and death records. The individuals will be followed at 2-week, 4-week, 6-month and 1-year intervals post-release. Difference-in-difference and time-to-event analyses will identify impactful interventions. A model will be created to show the effect of impactful interventions in Indiana counties that do not have PSCs. RESULTS: Findings are preliminary. There is variability amongst correctional facilities regarding programme eligibility, provided services and provision of medication-assisted treatment. All correctional facilities were severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: It is anticipated that the adoption of impactful interventions will lower opioid-related morbidity and mortality rates.

Predictors of Change in Skin Intrinsic Fluorescence in Type 1 Diabetes: The Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study.

BACKGROUND: Skin intrinsic fluorescent (SIF) scores are indirect measures of advanced glycation end-products (AGEs). SIF scores are cross-sectionally associated with type 1 diabetes (T1D) complications such as increased albumin excretion rate (AER), coronary artery calcification (CAC) and neuropathy. We assessed predictors of SIF score change in those with T1D. METHODS: Data from the 30-year longitudinal Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) study of childhood-onset T1D were used to assess AGEs measured with a SIF score produced by the SCOUT DS® device. SIF scores were assessed twice in 83 participants: between 2007-08 and again between 2010-14. Regression analyses were used to assess independent predictors of SIF score change. RESULTS: At baseline, mean age was 47.9 ± 6.9 years, diabetes duration was 36.7 ± 6.4 years, and median glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) was 7.1 (interquartile range: 6.5, 8.5). During a mean follow-up of 5.2 ± 0.9 years, mean change in SIF score was 2.9 ± 2.8 arbitrary units. In multivariable linear regression models, log HbA1c (P < 0.001), log estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (P < 0.001), overt nephropathy (defined as AER ≥ 200 µg/min, P = 0.06), and multiple daily insulin shots/pump use (MDI) exposure years (P = 0.02) were independent predictors of SIF score change. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in SIF score over 5 years were related to increased glycemic levels and decreased kidney function (eGFR). MDI and glomerular damage were related to a decreased SIF score. This is one of the first studies with repeated SIF assessments in T1D and provides unique, albeit preliminary, insight about these associations.

Predictors of the age at which natural menopause occurs in women with type 1 diabetes: the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) study.

OBJECTIVE: Women with type 1 diabetes (T1D) are thought to experience menopause earlier than women without diabetes, although not all studies agree. We assessed metabolic predictors of the age at which natural menopause occurs among women with T1D participating in the Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications study. METHODS: Women with childhood-onset (<17 y) of T1D who underwent natural menopause without use of hormone therapy during their menopausal transition were included in the analysis (n = 105; mean baseline age, 29.5 and diabetes duration, 20.2 y). Self-reported reproductive history and the Women's Ischemia Syndrome Evaluation hormonal algorithms were used to determine menopause status. Linear regression was used to ascertain whether time-weighted metabolic factors (eg, BMI, lipids, HbA1c, insulin dose, albumin excretion rate [AER]) were associated with age at natural menopause. RESULTS: Univariately, only insulin dose (ß = -4.87, P = 0.04) and log (AER) (ß = -0.62, P = 0.02) were associated (negatively) with age at natural menopause. Adjusting for BMI, smoking status, lipids, HbA1c, number of pregnancies, and oral contraceptive use, each 0.1 unit increase in the daily dose of insulin per kilogram body weight was associated with 0.64 years younger age at natural menopause (P = 0.01), while for every 30% increase in AER, age at natural menopause decreased by 0.18 years (P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Higher average levels of insulin dose and AER over time were significantly associated with a younger age at which natural menopause occurred among women with T1D. The biologic mechanisms underlying the observed associations between exogenous insulin dose and AER on reproductive health should be investigated among women with T1D.

Women with Type 1 diabetes (T1D) experience a shorter reproductive period compared with nondiabetic women: the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) study and the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN).

OBJECTIVE: Evidence suggests that insulin deficiency and hyperglycemia may disrupt the female reproductive system's normal function, leading to delayed menarche and premature ovarian aging. We thus compared the length of the reproductive period of women with type 1 diabetes (T1D) to women without diabetes. METHODS: Women with childhood-onset T1D (diagnosed in 1950-80) from the prospective Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) study and nondiabetic women from the Pittsburgh site of the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) were studied. Exclusion criteria comprised not having reached natural menopause, hysterectomy/oophorectomy before menopause, and sex hormone therapy during the menopausal transition. Reproductive history was self-reported. The historical and Women's Ischemia Syndrome Evaluation hormonal algorithms were also used to assess menopause status. RESULTS: Women in the T1D cohort (n = 105) were younger, more likely to be White, never smokers, with lower BMI and higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (all P values < 0.05) compared with women without diabetes (n = 178). After covariate adjustment, T1D women were also older at menarche (0.5-y delay, P = 0.002) but younger at natural menopause (-2.0 y, P < 0.0001). Women with T1D thus experienced 2.5 fewer reproductive years compared to those without diabetes (P < 0.0001). These findings were restricted to the subgroup of women who were diagnosed with T1D before reaching menarche (n = 80). CONCLUSION: Women with T1D onset before menarche have a shorter reproductive period compared with nondiabetic women, exhibiting delayed menarche and earlier natural menopause. Factors that may be related to a shorter reproductive period in T1D should be investigated.

Risk of Cataract in Intermediate Uveitis.

PURPOSE: To determine the incidence of and predictive factors for cataract in intermediate uveitis. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Patients were identified from the Systemic Immunosuppressive Therapy for Eye Diseases Cohort Study, in which medical records were reviewed to determine demographic and clinical data of every eye/patient at every visit at 5 participating US tertiary care uveitis centers. The primary outcome was development of vision-compromising cataract as defined by a decrease in visual acuity to 20/40 or less, or requiring cataract surgery. Survival analysis assessed visually defined cataract to avoid bias due to timing of surgery vis-à-vis inflammatory status. RESULTS: Among 2,190 eyes of 1,302 patients with intermediate uveitis, the cumulative incidence of cataract formation was 7.6% by 1 year (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.2%-9.1%), increasing to 36.6% by 10 years (95% CI = 31.2%-41.6%). Increased cataract risk was observed in eyes with concurrent anterior uveitis causing posterior synechiae (hazard ratio = 2.68, 95% CI = 2.00-3.59, P < .001), and in eyes with epiretinal membrane formation (hazard ratio = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.15-2.07, P = .004). Higher dose corticosteroid therapy was associated with significantly higher incidence of cataract, especially time-updated use of topical corticosteroids ≥2 times/d or ≥4 periocular corticosteroid injections. Low-dose corticosteroid medications (oral prednisone 7.5 mg daily or less, or topical corticosteroid drops <2 times/d) were not associated with increased cataract risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found that the incidence of clinically important cataract in intermediate uveitis is moderate. The risk is higher with markers of severity and with higher doses of corticosteroid medications, the latter being potentially modifiable.

Association of age at diabetes complication diagnosis with age at natural menopause in women with type 1 diabetes: The Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) Study.

OBJECTIVE: Vascular damage is thought to have a role in premature ovarian aging. We thus assessed the association between the presence, and age at onset of, vascular diabetes complications and age at natural menopause in women with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Female participants of the Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications study with type 1 diabetes who experienced natural menopause and who never received hormone therapy during their menopausal transition were included in the analysis (n=105). Microalbuminuria (MA), overt nephropathy, proliferative retinopathy, confirmed distal symmetric polyneuropathy, and coronary artery disease, were assessed during biennial clinical exanimations for the first 10 years of follow-up and at year 18, 25 and 30. Menopausal status was determined via self-report and sex hormone data. For each complication, separate linear regression models were used to assess whether, compared with women without the complication of interest, an earlier age at complication development (i.e., <30 years of age) was associated with an earlier age at natural menopause. RESULTS: Although results from multivariable linear regression models suggested a similar age at menopause between women with normo-albuminuria and those diagnosed with MA after 30 years of age, menopause occurred 2.06 years earlier (ß±SE=-2.06±1.08) among women diagnosed with MA before age 30 (p=0.06). No significant association was observed for other complications. CONCLUSION: Among women with type 1 diabetes, menopause appears to occur earlier in those diagnosed with MA before age 30 compared to those with normo-albuminuria, suggesting that vascular dysfunction associated with early microvascular disease may affect ovarian aging.

Skin intrinsic fluorescence scores are a predictor of all-cause mortality risk in type 1 diabetes: The Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications study.

AIMS: We assessed the association of skin intrinsic fluorescence (SIF) scores, as a measure of advanced glycation end-products (AGE), with all-cause mortality in type 1 diabetes (T1D). METHODS: This is an observational retrospective study of a convenience sample from the Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) study. AGEs were measured with a SIF score between 2007 and 2014; vital status was assessed in 2020. RESULTS: Among 245 participants, mean age was 48.6 ±â€¯7.4 years, median diabetes duration was 39.5 years (IQR: 34.2, 44.9), and 53.5% were female. Compared to survivors, the deceased (n = 20) were older, with higher SIF scores, longer diabetes duration, lower body mass index (BMI), and an adverse risk factor profile (all p≤0.05). Univariate Cox regression showed a marginal association between SIF score and mortality (HR: 1.1, 95% CI 0.9-1.2, p = 0.06), which persisted after adjustment for multiple daily insulin shots/pump (MDI) use (HR: 1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2, p = 0.04). This association was attenuated after adjustment for T1D duration, A1c months, or estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). CONCLUSIONS: In individuals with long duration T1D, SIF scores adjusted for MDI predicted all-cause mortality, although this association was attenuated after adjustments. Given the nature of sampling and small number of events, our findings require replication.

Mortality Patterns Among Industrial Workers Exposed to Chloroprene and Other Substances: Extended Follow-Up.

OBJECTIVES: To update the U.S. portion of an historical cohort mortality study of workers with potential exposure to chloroprene (CD) and vinyl chloride (VC) with focus on lung and liver cancer. METHODS: Subjects were 6864 workers from two sites with vital status determined through 2017 for 99% of subjects and cause of death for 97.2% of deaths. Historical exposures to CD and VC were estimated quantitatively. We performed external and internal mortality comparisons. RESULTS: External comparisons revealed mostly deficits in deaths; internal comparisons revealed no consistent evidence of exposure-response relationships with CD or VC. CONCLUSIONS: Our update continues to support the conclusion that the risk of death from lung or liver cancer is unrelated to exposure to CD or VC at levels experienced by workers in the two U.S. sites.

Age and generational patterns of overdose death risk from opioids and other drugs.

The ongoing substance misuse epidemic in the United States is complex and dynamic and should be approached as such in the development and evaluation of policy1. Drug overdose deaths (largely attributable to opioid misuse) in the United States have grown exponentially for almost four decades, but the mechanisms of this growth are poorly understood2. From analysis of 661,565 overdose deaths from 1999 to 2017, we show that the age-specific drug overdose mortality curve for each birth-year cohort rises and falls according to a Gaussian-shaped curve. The ascending portion of each successive birth-year cohort mortality curve is accelerated compared with that of all preceding birth-year cohorts. This acceleration can be attributed to either of two distinct processes: a stable peak age, with an increasing amplitude of mortality rate curves from one birth-year cohort to the next; or a youthward shift in the peak age of the mortality rate curves. The overdose epidemic emerged and increased in amplitude among the 1945-1964 cohort (Baby Boomers), shifted youthward among the 1965-1980 cohort (Generation X), and then resumed the pattern of increasing amplitude in the 1981-1990 Millennials. These shifting age and generational patterns are likely to be driven by socioeconomic factors and drug availability, the understanding of which is important for the development of effective overdose prevention measures.

Maternal Obesity, Birth Size, and Risk of Childhood Cancer Development.

Infants and children are particularly vulnerable to in utero and early-life exposures. Thus, a mother's exposures before and during pregnancy could have important consequences for her child's health, including cancer development. We examined whether birth certificate-derived maternal anthropometric characteristics were associated with increased risk of subsequent childhood cancer development, accounting for established maternal and infant risk factors. Pennsylvania birth and cancer registry files were linked by the state Department of Health, yielding a virtual cohort of births and childhood cancers from 2003 through 2016. The analysis included 1,827,875 infants (13,785,309 person-years at risk), with 2,352 children diagnosed with any cancer and 747 with leukemia before age 14 years. Children born to mothers with a body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)2) of ≥40 had a 57% (95% confidence interval: 12, 120) higher leukemia risk. Newborn size of ≥30% higher than expected was associated with 2.2-fold and 1.8-fold hazard ratios for total childhood cancer and leukemia, respectively, relative to those with expected size. Being <30% below expected size also increased the overall cancer risk (P for curvilinearity < 0.0001). Newborn size did not mediate the association between maternal obesity and childhood cancer. The results suggest a significant role of early-life exposure to maternal obesity- and fetal growth-related factors in childhood cancer development.

Mortality among United States aerospace materials manufacturing workers.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate long-term mortality rates among aerospace material manufacturing workers as follow-up to an earlier observed excess of nephritis/nephrosis. METHODS: Subjects were 2020 workers ever employed in the facility during 1963-2014. Vital status through 2014 was determined for all subjects and cause of death for 99.2% of 492 deaths. We computed standard mortality ratios (SMR) and internal relative risks. RESULTS: SMRs for nephritis/nephrosis were unremarkable. We observed statistically significant elevated SMRs for kidney cancer among all workers and for the category "other lymphatic hematopoietic tissue cancer" (4/5 deaths from multiple myeloma) among long-term workers with potential plant exposure. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of elevated mortality rates for nephritis/nephrosis. Study limitations precluded robust evaluation of whether the elevated rates for kidney cancer and other lymphatic hematopoietic tissue cancer were related to occupational factors at the study site. Our findings for these two cancers warrant continued mortality follow-up.

Changing dynamics of the drug overdose epidemic in the United States from 1979 through 2016.

Better understanding of the dynamics of the current U.S. overdose epidemic may aid in the development of more effective prevention and control strategies. We analyzed records of 599,255 deaths from 1979 through 2016 from the National Vital Statistics System in which accidental drug poisoning was identified as the main cause of death. By examining all available data on accidental poisoning deaths back to 1979 and showing that the overall 38-year curve is exponential, we provide evidence that the current wave of opioid overdose deaths (due to prescription opioids, heroin, and fentanyl) may just be the latest manifestation of a more fundamental longer-term process. The 38+ year smooth exponential curve of total U.S. annual accidental drug poisoning deaths is a composite of multiple distinctive subepidemics of different drugs (primarily prescription opioids, heroin, methadone, synthetic opioids, cocaine, and methamphetamine), each with its own specific demographic and geographic characteristics.

Changes in midlife death rates across racial and ethnic groups in the United States: systematic analysis of vital statistics.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically compare midlife mortality patterns in the United States across racial and ethnic groups during 1999-2016, documenting causes of death and their relative contribution to excess deaths. DESIGN: Trend analysis of US vital statistics among racial and ethnic groups. SETTING: United States, 1999-2016. POPULATION: US adults aged 25-64 years (midlife). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Absolute changes in mortality measured as average year-to-year change during 1999-2016 and 2012-16; excess deaths attributable to increasing mortality; and relative changes in mortality measured as relative difference between mortality in 1999 versus 2016 and the nadir year versus 2016, and the slope of modeled mortality trends for 1999-2016 and for intervals between joinpoints. RESULTS: During 1999-2016, all cause mortality in midlife increased not only among non-Hispanic (NH) whites but also among NH American Indians and Alaskan Natives. Although all cause mortality initially decreased among NH blacks, Hispanics, and NH Asians and Pacific Islanders, this trend ended in 2009-11. Drug overdoses were the leading cause of increased mortality in midlife in each population, but mortality also increased for alcohol related conditions, suicides, and organ diseases involving multiple body systems. Although midlife mortality among NH whites increased across a multitude of conditions, a similar trend affected non-white populations. Absolute (year-to-year) increases in midlife mortality among non-white populationsoften matched or exceeded those of NH whites, especially in 2012-16, when the rate of increase intensified for many causes of death. During 1999-2016, NH American Indians and Alaskan Natives experienced large increases in midlife mortality from 12 causes, not only drug overdoses (411.4%) but also hypertensive diseases (269.3%), liver cancer (115.1%), viral hepatitis (112.1%), and diseases of the nervous system (99.8%). NH blacks experienced increased midlife mortality from 17 causes, including drug overdoses (149.6%), homicides (21.4%), hypertensive diseases (15.5%), obesity (120.7%), and liver cancer (49.5%). NH blacks also experienced retrogression: after a period of stable or declining midlife mortality early in 1999-2016, death rates increased for alcohol related liver disease, chronic lower respiratory tract disease, suicides, diabetes, and pancreatic cancer. Among Hispanics, midlife mortality increased across 12 causes, including drug overdoses (80.0%), hypertensive diseases (40.6%), liver cancer (41.8%), suicides (21.9%), obesity (106.6%), and metabolic disorders (60.0%). Retrogression also occurred in this population; after a period of declining mortality, death rates increased for alcohol related liver disease, mental and behavioral disorders involving psychoactive substances, and homicides. NH Asians and Pacific Islanders were least affected by this trend but also experienced increases in midlife mortality from drug overdoses (300.6%), alcohol related liver disease (62.9%), hypertensive diseases (28.3%), and brain cancer (56.6%). The suicide rate in this group increased by 29.7% after 2001. The relative increase in US midlife mortality differed by sex and geography. For example, the relative increase in fatal drug overdoses was greater among women than among men. Although the relative increase in midlife mortality was generally greater in non-metropolitan (ie, rural) areas, the relative increase in drug overdoses among NH whites and Hispanics was greatest in suburban fringe areas of large cities, and among NH blacks was greatest in small cities. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in midlife in the US has increased across racial-ethnic populations for a variety of conditions, especially in recent years, offsetting years of progress in lowering mortality rates. This reversal carries added consequences for racial groups with high baseline mortality rates, such as for NH blacks and NH American Indians and Alaskan Natives. That death rates are increasing throughout the US population for dozens of conditions signals a systemic cause and warrants prompt action by policy makers to tackle the factors responsible for declining health in the US.

The Effect of Incomplete Death Certificates on Estimates of Unintentional Opioid-Related Overdose Deaths in the United States, 1999-2015.

OBJECTIVES: A complete and accurate count of the number of opioid-related overdose deaths is essential to properly allocate resources. We determined the rate of unintentional overdose deaths (non-opioid-related, opioid-related, or unspecified) in the United States and by state from 1999 to 2015 and the possible effects of underreporting on national estimates of opioid abuse. METHODS: We abstracted unintentional drug overdose deaths ( International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, codes X40-X44) with contributory drug-specific T codes (T36.0-T50.9) from the Mortality Multiple Cause Micro-Data Files. We assumed that the proportion of unspecified overdose deaths that might be attributed to opioids would be the same as the proportion of opioid-related overdose deaths among all overdose deaths and calculated the number of deaths that could be reallocated as opioid-related for each state and year. We then added these reallocated deaths to the reported deaths to determine their potential effect on total opioid-related deaths. RESULTS: From 1999 to 2015, a total of 438 607 people died from unintentional drug overdoses. Opioid-related overdose deaths rose 401% (from 5868 to 29 383), non-opioid-related overdose deaths rose 150% (from 3005 to 7505), and unspecified overdose deaths rose 220% (from 2255 to 29 383). In 5 states (Alabama, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania), more than 35% of unintentional overdose deaths were coded as unspecified. Our reallocation resulted in classifying more than 70 000 unspecified overdose deaths as potential additional opioid-related overdose deaths. CONCLUSIONS: States may be greatly underestimating the effect of opioid-related overdose deaths because of incomplete cause-of-death reporting, indicating that the current opioid overdose epidemic may be worse than it appears.